TO: Mayor and Councilmembers
FROM: Paul Young, Finance Director
SUBJECT:
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Report on Sales Tax - First Quarter of 2026
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RECOMMENDED COUNCIL ACTION:
recommendation
Informational only; no action needed.
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SUMMARY:
Receipts for Red Bluff sales occurring from January through March 2026 were 30.8% below the same quarter of 2025.
The 2025/26 fiscal year actual sales tax in the amount of $6,270,036, a 1.7% decrease from the last quarterly sales tax report. The 2026/27 fiscal year projected sales tax in the amount of $6,466,433, same as the last quarterly sales tax report.
PREVIOUS COUNCIL ACTION:
Staff updates City Council with quarterly sales tax reports. The last sales tax report to the City Council was on May 19, 2026.
DISCUSSION:
As part of the City’s consultant agreement, HdL Companies monitors and projects sales tax revenue and provides the City with quarterly sales tax reports and the California Consensus Forecast.
Attached to the staff report is the First Quarter Sales Tax Report for 2026 (collected in January to March 2026, disbursed to the City in March 2026 to June 2026).
Due to spending seasonality, HdL provides the quarterly sales tax report comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the first quarter of 2025. Receipts for Red Bluff sales were 30.8% below the same quarter of 2025. Excluding adjustments, receipts decreased 10.8% for the same prior year quarter. The sales tax categories of General Consumer Goods and Restaurants & Hotels and Food & Drug all saw some growth. Business & Industry, State & County Pools, Autos & Transportation, and Fuel & Service Stations saw significant decreases in taxes collected. Decreases in the State & County Pools were mostly due to one-time purchases of equipment in the first quarter of 2025. The other decreases are most likely due to world conflicts that started in the first quarter 2026.
Also attached to the staff report is HdL’s California Consensus Forecast. This report has current statewide sales tax trends and economic drivers for June 2026.
CITY FISCAL IMPACT:
June 2026 sales tax was received in August, and the total amount of sales tax received for fiscal year 2025-2026 was included below.
Projections for future sales tax receipts are as follows:
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The prior estimate by HdL: |
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25/26 |
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26/27 |
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Bradley Burns 1% sales tax: |
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4,756,023 |
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4,832,729 |
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Measure D (1/4) sales tax: |
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1,469,770 |
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1,478,704 |
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County Pool Sharing |
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155,000 |
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155,000 |
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Total sales tax: |
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6,380,793 |
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6,466,433 |
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Actuals |
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Estimates |
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The current estimate by Hadl: |
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|
|
|
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Bradley Burns 1% sales tax: |
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4,689,703 |
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4,832,729 |
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Measure D (1/4) sales tax: |
|
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1,415,665 |
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1,478,704 |
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County Pool Sharing |
|
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164,668 |
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155,000 |
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Total sales tax: |
|
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6,270,036 |
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6,466,433 |
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|
|
|
|
|
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Net Change in projection |
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(110,757) |
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- |
The annual sales tax amount used for the City’s 2025-26 Original Budget was 6,433,177. The actual amount is 163,141 less than what was budgeted.
The annual sales tax amount used for the City’s 2026-27 Original Budget was 6,493,000. The current projection is 26,567 less than what was budgeted.
ATTACHMENTS:
1. Red Bluff 1Q26 Newsletter
2. California Consensus Forecast 1Q 2026